News & Insights

The US economy has been showing signs of improvement and seems to have averted a recession for the time being. The consensus among economists is that the outlook for the fourth quarter of 2024 appears mixed, shaped by a combination of a continued moderating of inflation, a surprisingly aggressive FOMC, geopolitical risks, and the anticipation of the 2024 presidential election

The outlook for the economy this year appears promising. Consumers are contributing actively by spending sufficiently to bolster broader economic expansion. Persistently high inflation does remain a fly in the ointment, and the FOMC has stated it will not lower interest rates until inflation is on track to come back to its target level of 2%.

The US economy has recently performed above-trend and at unsustainable levels, and while the consensus among economists is that there will be an inevitable slowing in the months ahead, it will still perform better than most of the rest of the world.

The economy has shown signs that it is on a glide-path to a “soft landing,” where the FOMC increases interest rates to tame inflation, but the economy simultaneously averts recession. The resilient economic growth and job market gains have surprised many economists, and while there remain risks to the downside, conditions are such that some analysts say the economy may also surprise to the upside and be stronger than expected.

The economy has so far been resilient in the face of the FOMC’s series of interest rate increases to battle inflation. However, there are signs that the increases are influencing growth, and many economists expect the economy to weaken substantially in the coming quarters.

The US economy slowed in the first quarter of 2023 in a sign that economists say indicates growth will continue to be weak for the remainder of the year.

The global economy continued to recover during the quarter following a shaky 2022. Inflation remains persistently and painfully high, but the rate of inflation has eased a bit since the FOMC instituted the most aggressive program of interest rate increases in 40 years.

The US economy posted modest growth in the quarter, but continues to grapple with high inflation, rising interest rates, and slowing employment growth.

The global economy is currently teetering on the brink of recession after having delivered a strong post-pandemic recovery. Decades-high inflation caused by supply shortages and rising commodity prices – as well as an aggressive central bank policy response – is undoing the global expansion.

US consumers and investors have become increasingly pessimistic this year because of historically high inflation, the FOMC’s aggressive interest rate increases, and the war in Ukraine, among other things.

After a strong on the fourth quarter of 2021, economic activity has begun to slow more than expected early in 2022 due to rapidly accelerating inflation emanating from goods shortages due to supply chain bottlenecks, as well as a continued jump in inflation driven in part by surging commodity prices brought on by the Russia-Ukraine war.

The global economy continues to improve, with most regions now better off than six months ago. The Omicron variant of the virus introduces some uncertainty into the near-term outlook, but most analysts believe that it will not derail the overall momentum of the recovery

The global economy is moving forward in fits and starts, with varying results in different regions of the world. Covid-19 continues to be somewhat of a headwind for the economy, with the Delta variant raising concerns over a rise in new cases.

The global economy is forging ahead as it continues to recover from the very severe, but also very brief, recession triggered by the pandemic.

The US economy suffered through the shortest but most severe recession on record as a result of the pandemic, but is in the midst of staging a strong recovery.

The US economy suffered through the shortest but most severe recession on record as a result of the pandemic, but is in the midst of staging a strong recovery.

While the economy has avoided a Depression-level recession, there is still much work to be done to reach pre-COVID levels, with some economists estimating this could take as long as two years.

While the health-related effects of COVID-19 were still playing out in the second quarter, stock prices staged one of the most impressive rallies on record as investors attempted to discount the magnitude and timing of an economic recovery