The US economy has been showing signs of improvement and seems to have averted a recession for the time being. The consensus among economists is that the outlook for the fourth quarter of 2024 appears mixed, shaped by a combination of a continued moderating of inflation, a surprisingly aggressive FOMC, geopolitical risks, and the anticipation of the 2024 presidential election

The outlook for the economy this year appears promising. Consumers are contributing actively by spending sufficiently to bolster broader economic expansion. Persistently high inflation does remain a fly in the ointment, and the FOMC has stated it will not lower interest rates until inflation is on track to come back to its target level of 2%.

The US economy has recently performed above-trend and at unsustainable levels, and while the consensus among economists is that there will be an inevitable slowing in the months ahead, it will still perform better than most of the rest of the world.