The outlook for the economy this year appears promising. Consumers are contributing actively by spending sufficiently to bolster broader economic expansion. Persistently high inflation does remain a fly in the ointment, and the FOMC has stated it will not lower interest rates until inflation is on track to come back to its target level of 2%.

The US economy has recently performed above-trend and at unsustainable levels, and while the consensus among economists is that there will be an inevitable slowing in the months ahead, it will still perform better than most of the rest of the world.

The economy has shown signs that it is on a glide-path to a “soft landing,” where the FOMC increases interest rates to tame inflation, but the economy simultaneously averts recession. The resilient economic growth and job market gains have surprised many economists, and while there remain risks to the downside, conditions are such that some analysts say the economy may also surprise to the upside and be stronger than expected.