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News & Insights
First Quarter 2026 Update
After accelerating in the summer, the U.S. economy decelerated meaningfully into the winter: according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) second estimate, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annualized 0.7% in Q4 2025, down from 4.4% in Q3.
Fourth Quarter 2025 Update
After stumbling early in the year, the U.S. economy accelerated meaningfully into the summer: according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis initial report, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annualized 4.3% in Q3 2025, up from 3.8% in Q2.
Third Quarter 2025 Update
Rather than a sharp contraction, recent data describe a tempering of activity: payroll gains have moderated, but layoffs remain low, initial unemployment claims sit well below levels associated with recessions, and aggregate measures of output and corporate income continue to show resilience.
