The global economy is currently teetering on the brink of recession after having delivered a strong post-pandemic recovery. Decades-high inflation caused by supply shortages and rising commodity prices – as well as an aggressive central bank policy response – is undoing the global expansion.

US consumers and investors have become increasingly pessimistic this year because of historically high inflation, the FOMC’s aggressive interest rate increases, and the war in Ukraine, among other things.

After a strong on the fourth quarter of 2021, economic activity has begun to slow more than expected early in 2022 due to rapidly accelerating inflation emanating from goods shortages due to supply chain bottlenecks, as well as a continued jump in inflation driven in part by surging commodity prices brought on by the Russia-Ukraine war.