Rather than a sharp contraction, recent data describe a tempering of activity: payroll gains have moderated, but layoffs remain low, initial unemployment claims sit well below levels associated with recessions, and aggregate measures of output and corporate income continue to show resilience.

As we enter the second half of 2025, the U.S. economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic. The rebound in second quarter real GDP growth, alongside a resilient labor market and easing inflation, points to a path of moderate expansion.

The US economy continues to demonstrate robust results, as its growth rate maintained its recent solid performance in the fourth quarter of 2024. The primary driver of the continued resilience was consumer spending and imports.